Analysis of the hottest experts on China's paper i

Expert analysis: from the perspective of Chenming development, China's paper industry

as the "leader" of the paper industry, Chenming Paper (related, market, individual stock forum) (000488) recently released its semi annual report, which shows that the competitiveness of the company is still very strong. According to the latest report on China's industrial development boom released by the development research center of the State Council, the paper and printing industry will be one of the four industries with a significant rise in the boom level in the second half of the year. But the increasingly fierce competition in the paper industry is also undeniable. So, what are the development characteristics and future trends of the paper industry this year? What will be the trend of raw material prices and product prices and their impact on enterprises? How does macro-control affect the industry? How to evaluate the position of Chenming Paper in the industry and the investment value of the market

: how to view the impact of macro-control on the paper industry

Xu LAN of Southern Securities Research Institute: the macro-control that began in April this year has taken restrictive measures for the over investment and development of many industries. Although there are no clear restrictions on the paper industry, it mentioned that projects that are adverse to environmental protection will be restricted. In addition, in the just released decision of the State Council to further deepen the reform of the investment system, it was clearly pointed out that the destruction of land and sea should be stopped, and that the pulp projects with an annual output of 100000 tons and above should be approved by the competent investment department of the State Council, the pulp projects with an annual output of 34000 tons (including) and 100000 tons (excluding) should be approved by the competent investment department of the provincial government, and the construction of other pulp projects should be prohibited. Projects in the paper industry need to consume a lot of natural resources. PVC gem layer has become an important part of the source of decoration appearance and will produce similar problems such as sewage that is not conducive to environmental protection. Therefore, it will not be indirectly affected by macro-control

: how to treat the pollution problems faced by the industry

Wang Peng, R & D center of China Merchants Securities (related, market, individual stock forum): pollution discharge is a common problem in the domestic paper industry, which must be paid enough attention. Despite years of treatment, the pollution discharge problem of domestic paper-making enterprises is still serious. This problem is mainly due to the fact that a large number of enterprises still produce straw pulp, and then use straw pulp to make paper after the first layer of powder is paved; And the waste water treatment is not qualified. However, the essence of this problem is that the scale of domestic paper-making enterprises is generally small, and it requires a lot of investment to reach a higher emission standard, so it will lose economic benefits. Of course, it is also closely related to the local protection adopted by some local governments for short-term economic interests. Only when the scale is large enough (with an annual output of more than 300000 tons), and relevant environmental protection and wastewater treatment are carried out, can the investment have scale benefits, and some links such as alkali recovery can actually create benefits

in terms of environmental pollution discharge, domestic pollution discharge standards are expected to be gradually improved. From May 1st, 2003, Shandong Province began to implement local standards that are more stringent than the "national standard". Therefore, the paper-making enterprises in Shandong Province have been ahead of their counterparts in the country in pollution control. At present, the State Environmental Protection Administration has entrusted Shandong Province to formulate new national standards. At that time, the differentiation trend of the survival of the fittest in the domestic paper industry will intensify, and the industry concentration will further improve

: what kind of transmission mechanism will the rising price of raw materials have on paper products

Dr. shensiwei, School of management, shanghaijiaotonguniversity: the rise in papermaking raw materials will continue to drive up downstream prices. Since 2003, the price of raw materials has soared all over the world, and the prices of non-ferrous metals, oil, agricultural products (related, market, individual stock forum), forestry products, wood pulp and other raw materials have generally risen. Just as the rising oil price drives up the price of international petrochemical products, I believe that factors such as the rising price of wood pulp will continue to drive up the price of paper products

: what impact does the serious imbalance of China's paper industry structure have on the price of high-end products

Shen Siwei: the industrial structure of China's paper industry is that the supply in the high-end market exceeds the demand, and the supply in the low-end market exceeds the demand. In 2002, the consumption of coated paper in China was 2.03 million tons, and the output was only 1.6 million tons. The gap between supply and demand was more than 400000 tons. In that year, the actual import of coated paper was 614800 tons. Coated white board, low weight coated paper and other high-end paper products are also facing a huge gap between supply and demand, and a large number of imports from abroad every year consume a large amount of foreign exchange. Corresponding to the supply and demand situation, domestic enterprises producing high-end paper products have good economic benefits, while enterprises producing low-end products are hit by the rise in raw material prices and the oversupply, hovering on the edge of loss. After winning the anti-dumping lawsuit of domestic coated paper in 2003, Chenming Paper and other major coated paper production enterprises have achieved good benefits

: specifically for Chenming paper, what will be the price trend of the company's two main varieties of coated paper and paper in the second half of the year

yaozonghui, the second Department of the Securities Research Institute of Shenyin Wanguo (related, market, individual stock forum): since the second half of last year, under the influence of the continuous improvement of the world economic situation, the sharp decline of pulp inventory and the continuous decline of the US dollar exchange rate, the international pulp price has increased significantly, The North bleached cork kraft pulp (NBSK) Foex price index in the European market once rose to $662/ton at the end of June 2004 (the historical high was $710/ton). Since July, the international pulp price has fallen, and the current price is $656/ton, still 19% higher than the historical average price of $550/ton

due to the large dependence of China's paper industry on imported wood pulp and waste pulp (accounting for about 34% of the total national pulp consumption in 2003), the sharp rise in international pulp prices has brought huge cost pressure to China's paper enterprises, including Chenming paper, the industry leader. However, after the continuous sharp rise in international pulp prices, the increase in the second half of the year will be very limited, and there is a greater possibility of high-level consolidation or decline

specifically, coated paper and paper accounted for 40% of the main business profit of Chenming Paper in the first half of the year. Under the condition that the cost of raw materials remained basically unchanged, the price trend of the above two categories of paper products will be directly related to the growth of the company's profit in the second half of the year. At present, the annual production capacity of domestic coated paper enterprises is about 2million tons. Except for the 200000 ton project of Quanlin paper industry, there is basically no new production capacity this year. At the same time, the five-year anti-dumping since August 2003 has further inhibited the import of coated paper. With the continuous growth of the national economy, the total domestic demand for coated paper this year is expected to increase by 10 ~ 15% to about 2.5 million tons, and the overall supply of coated paper market is slightly less than demand. Therefore, the price of coated paper in the second half of the year is still optimistic. In terms of paper, on June 30, the Ministry of Commerce issued an announcement on the final retrial of the anti-dumping case of paper, deciding to continue to impose anti-dumping duties on paper imported into China from Canada, South Korea and the United States for a period of five years. We believe that the continuous rise in raw material prices, the sharp rise in paper prices in the international market and the continuation of anti-dumping have actually blocked the callback space of China's paper prices, and there is a possibility of a slight rise in domestic paper prices in the second half of the year

: after continuous decline in China's stock market, some industry leading stocks have entered the value investment area again. How to evaluate the investment value of Chenming paper

Shen Siwei: industry leadership is the premise of value investment, and low P/E ratio is the key to value investment. As of July 28th, 2004, the static P/E ratio of Chenming paper was only 13.67 times, which was significantly higher than the average p/E ratio of the global paper industry. With the rise in the price of high-end paper products, it is expected that the company's performance in 2004 will still improve to a certain extent. By 2005, the total production capacity of the company's paper products will reach 2.2 million tons, which is expected to enter the top ten of the global paper industry. The production of new projects will further significantly improve the scale and efficiency of the company and become a solid guarantee for the investment value of the company

: the domestic paper industry is facing internal and external attacks, and large-scale industry integration and mergers and acquisitions will be the general trend. What are the advantages of leading enterprises in it

Wang Peng: paper industry is a capital intensive industry with significant economies of scale. There is no benefit without a certain scale. Compared with large foreign paper-making enterprises and a few domestic foreign-funded enterprises, most domestic paper-making enterprises still have disadvantages such as small scale, low management level and weak technical strength. However, some domestic enterprises such as Chenming, Huatai and Taiyang paper stand out and become the leaders of the industry. They have the strength to compete with domestic foreign-funded enterprises in terms of scale, technology, management and marketing, The gap with large foreign enterprises is narrowing. At present, the domestic paper industry has formed a pattern that the strong are always strong, the industry concentration is getting higher and higher, and the situation of survival of the fittest has been formed, which also provides market space for the further development and growth of advantageous enterprises

since this year, the price of raw materials such as wood pulp in the international market has continued to rise, and competition has intensified. The domestic paper industry will face a new round of survival of the fittest. The main investment opportunities in the capital market will be the continuous development and growth of industry leaders, as well as mergers and acquisitions and asset restructuring in the industry (including foreign capital)